The term of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell ends May 15, 2026, so a new one may have already been selected and will likely be announced soon.
What’s your prediction?
Most insiders are predicting that Kevin Hassett, currently the director of the White House National Economic Council, will be the pick for Trump’s next Federal Reserve chair, but there is still a small chance the president opts instead for Kevin Warsh or, less likely, Christopher Waller. There’s always a possibility of a late-moment curveball with Trump.
However, as of 12:42 a.m., December 26, it’s no surprise Hassett is the favorite, as markets and insiders already regard him as the clear frontrunner, given his close political alignment with Trump and strong support for lower interest rates.
The keyword is “political.”
Check out Hassett’s December 24th FOX News interview below. He sounds exactly like a Trump sycophant and someone who’ll do whatever the president asks. He literally seems like Trump’s ideal pick.
Hassett referred to the mainstream news as ‘fake’ and, almost immediately, stated, “President Trump’s policies are working. They are very visibly working.” Subsequently, he also disparaged former Vice President Al Gore and regurgitated Trump/MAGA optimism, insisting the U.S. is on the verge of a ‘Golden Age.’
And if he’s right about a Golden Age, it’ll be a wonderful thing. America won’t argue with strong results. But how wishful is that thinking? Most experts seem to think America is headed towards tough economic times.
To his credit, Hassett was correct in noting that the Trump economy has thus far outperformed expectations. And beyond signaling loyalty to the president, he also provided substance, discussing the economy’s trajectory, the key drivers of American growth, and the benefits of the recent reduction in the trade deficit.
Prediction: In that interview, Kevin Hassett sounded every bit like the next Federal Reserve Chair, and he’s my pick for the position. He falls in line with the administration and seems more likely to be influenced by pressure from Trump.
If Trump, in a hypothetical fantasy, asked an angel to create his perfect Fed Chair, Hassett would probably be that fellow.
Should Hassett be selected, I sincerely hope he relies more on his own judgment and intellect, like current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, (who, incidentally, was selected by Trump), rather than succumb to the pressures of the administration. Hopefully, he will prioritize the country’s best interests over potential short-term gains, which could potentially backfire bigly in the long term.
What about the other top candidates, Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller?
Warsh may fall short because he has a long record as an inflation hawk, criticizing QE and emphasizing price stability over aggressive growth, which clashes with Trump’s push for very low rates and tolerance for easier money. Moreover, his previous actions suggest he’ll have a tighter, more conservative policy (as it relates to interest rates), be more independent of the Executive Branch, and be more likely to stand his ground with Trump. Even though his odds briefly surged, markets and reporting now put him clearly behind Kevin Hassett and see him as a riskier choice for Trump’s priorities.
Moreover, Trump has explicitly said he wants a chair who will consult him on rates, and Warsh doesn’t seem to share that philosophy. After all, the Fed Chair is supposed to operate with significant independence from the President, shielding monetary policy from short-term political pressures.
Like Warsh, Waller is considered too independent-minded and would seemingly be less loyal to a president. Moreover, he is not very political, which is normally a strength for a central banker but counts against him in this selection process. (As we saw in Hassett’s latest interview, he’s very political.
As of late December, markets, including Polymarket, price Hassett as the clear favorite (roughly double Warsh’s odds), reflecting the consensus that Trump will default to the more politically loyal, growth‑first candidate rather than the more hawkish, independent Warsh.
What’s your prediction?
