On paper, the California governor’s race (2026) is highly unpredictable—more than usual for a deep-blue state. But according to Polymarket, Democrat Eric Swalwell is the man at the moment. He is predicted to be California’s next governor.
A whopping 64 percent of Polymarket gamblers, as of April 3, believe he will become California’s next governor. Tom Seyer, a Democratic billionaire businessman, philanthropist, and environmentalist, with 9.7 percent of the Polymarket vote, is a distant second.
So why Swalwell?
He is a Democratic congressman from California known for his national media presence, as you’ve probably seen him on TV. He is certainly one of the more outgoing Members of Congress.
With a primary focus on gun control, national security, and judiciary issues, Swalwell has represented California’s 14th congressional district (Bay Area) since 2013 and was first elected at just 31 years old, making him one of the younger members of Congress at the time. Before that, he served as a prosecutor in Alameda County, focusing on criminal cases.
During President Trump’s second impeachment hearing in 2021, Swalwell was a House impeachment manager and argued the case in the Senate trial.
A still-young, media-savvy Democrat, Swalwell is known as a strong communicator, especially online, who frequently clashes with Republicans.
Swalwell advocates for the greater transparency of political figures. He argues that when political figures attack one another in public and still expect to be on good terms ‘behind the scenes,’ it is hypocritical. He compares this type of political figure’s actions to those of an actor/entertainer in the sense that many are more interested in entertaining than being truthful or serving the people.
But, there’s a risk this time
There are upwards of 20 Democrats running for governor. And California doesn’t do party primaries like most states. In the Golden State, the top two candidates overall (any party) advance to the general election. So, if Democrats split the vote too much in the primary, two Republicans could make the final ballot, thus guaranteeing a Republican governor for the deep blue state. This is not hypothetical—analysts say it’s a real risk right now.
On CA's governor race:
— The Story Is (@CNNTheStoryIs) March 31, 2026
“…the bluest state at the height of the Trump resistance – that there could be two Republicans in the final two" – @Elex_Michaelson on @TheLeadCNN @RonBrownstein : “Gavin Newsom does not want a Republican governor while he is out running for president.” pic.twitter.com/fTflQpfDwJ
Key takeaway: There’s no dominant frontrunner, despite Polymarket’s emphasis on Swalwell.
The California primary is June 2.
Most likely scenario: Democrat vs Republican → Democrat wins
California still leans heavily Democratic overall. If even one Democrat makes the final two, they’re favored
Our Prediction
We like Swalwell and think Democrats will be able to cut in half the number of gubernatorial candidates by the primary. That said, California’s Democratic leadership should be watching the polls very closely from now until the primary.
Should Swalwell survive and become one of the top two candidates, he should be a virtual lock for the office.
