We predict gas prices to jump in the short term after the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, and they could spike sharply if the conflict escalates.
In the near term, gas prices could increase anywhere from 30 to 60 cents per gallon due to the conflict. So, after an additional 10–15 cents per gallon is added for normal increases this time of year (see the Feb 23 update below), we could see gas surge from 40 to 75 cents per gallon versus late February’s prices.
Although Iran only accounts for 3-4% of global oil production, their retaliation will likely generate levels of regional disruption that’ll directly or indirectly cause an uptick in oil. For example, about 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway along Iran’s southern coast. If the waterway is disrupted, a global supply tightens, driving an increase in prices.
A serious, sustained disruption or effective long-term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz—through mines, missile attacks, or credible threats—would be a worst‑case scenario.
But that’s not all… If Iran targets Gulf producers’ infrastructure (such as Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar oil fields) or successfully harasses tankers, gas prices will increase even more.
Military action and gas prices
Military action—especially in the Middle East—often drives up gas prices.
1990–91 Gulf crisis: Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait abruptly removed both countries’ exports, contributing to an 11% rise in U.S. gasoline prices versus the prior year.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022): Brent crude rose roughly 15% in the immediate aftermath, from about 95 to 110 dollars per barrel, and U.S. gasoline prices climbed sharply, with producer prices for gasoline up about 85% year‑over‑year at the June 2022 peak.
Prediction warning: Expect noticeable increases at the pump over the next 1–3 weeks, with bigger jumps if headlines mention “Hormuz disruption,” “tanker attack,” or “hit on Saudi/UAE facilities.”
If you want to save a little money, fill up while the market is repricing the new war risk.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively CLOSED. 🚫🚢
— Prince (@FxCryptoPrince) March 1, 2026
Major tankers are pulling U-turns as Iran warns: "No ship will pass."
With 1/5th of global oil and LNG now trapped or diverted, how high do you see gas prices going by Monday? 📈👇
#OOTT #Iran #Oil #BreakingNews
February 23 (Pre-War) Update
Gasoline prices are likely to drift higher into late February and March 2026 from current levels, but within a still‑moderate range (around the upper‑$2s to low‑$3s per gallon nationally). So, don’t expect a 2022-style shock.
A reasonable prediction: Expect national averages to rise from ~2.90-2.93 dollars now to around 3.00-3.05 dollars by the end of March, i.e., roughly 0.10-0.15 dollars/gal higher than today, if nothing breaks in crude or refining.
A sharper run-up (say, 20–30 cents from here) would likely require either a meaningful crude shock or notable refinery outages.
Of course, gas prices will rise even more after the end of March as we head into the warmer months. GasBuddy’s 2026 outlook and coverage suggest a spring peak in the low‑3.20s.
All of this is normal.
The seasonal rise in gas prices in spring 2026 is being driven by the shift to summer‑blend gasoline, normal spring demand growth, and tighter refining margins, with an added (but mixed) influence from geopolitics and crude prices.
Warning: A U.S. attack on Iran would almost certainly push oil and U.S. gasoline prices above the predicted 3.00-3.05 end-of-March range. How much higher would depend on the level of disruption.
How do the current gas prices stack up with mid-to-late February 2025?
We’re about .23 to .26 cents lower.
