Reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is the clear MVP favorite right now because he’s combining elite box-score production with anchoring the best team in the league, and both the betting markets and the official MVP ladder have him in front by a meaningful margin.
Major sportsbooks list SGA around -210 to -230 to win MVP, implying roughly a 65–70% chance; Nikola Jokić, who has already won MVP three times, is a distant second in the low +300s, with others far behind.
Moreover, Polymarket, as of February 14, believes Gilgeous-Alexander has a 59% chance of winning MVP again.
Per the aforementioned prediction market, Jokić’s odds are 26%, while Cade Cunningham and Luka Dončić sit at just 5%.
SGA is averaging about 31–32 points, 4–5 rebounds, and 6–7 assists per game, on roughly 55% from the field and close to 39% from three, which is elite efficiency for that usage. And he leads or is near the top of advanced metrics like win shares, and he’s put together a 100+ game streak of 20+ points that pushes a “historic consistency” narrative voters gravitate toward.
He’s a tough man. And the odds are strongly in his favor.
Team success and narrative
- As of this writing, Oklahoma City has the second-best record in the NBA, and SGA is clearly the primary driver of that, often carrying the offense when key teammates like Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein have been out.
- MVP voters historically reward the best player on an elite regular-season team, and media coverage has framed him as the engine of a contender that has taken the next step from “promising young team” to “true title threat.”
Since the introduction of the NBA MVP award in the 1955-56 season, a total of 13 different NBA players have won back-to-back awards.
Two-way impact and voter preferences
- Beyond scoring, SGA’s point-of-attack defense and playmaking give him a two-way profile that compares favorably with his top competition, which matters in media discourse when separating close candidates.
- Recent MVP cycles have emphasized durability, all-around impact, and clear on/off value; SGA checks those boxes better than most, especially if he clears the 65-game threshold despite a short injury absence.
Why “will” is still probabilistic
The combination of top-tier stats, best-in-league record, and market pricing makes SGA more likely than any single rival to win MVP if trends continue. However, the -200-ish price still leaves ~30–35% for the field—mostly Jokić and Luka Dončić—so he’s in a favored but not locked position, where a prolonged injury or Thunder slide could still flip the race.
Why Jokić can still win MVP
Nikola Jokić currently ranks as the clear No. 2 behind Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander in both odds and the official MVP ladder, and he has a very real path to winning the 2025–26 MVP if SGA’s case weakens.
Also, the narrative that he “dragged Denver back into the race” after a knee layoff, combined with voters’ familiarity with him as a multi‑time MVP, gives him a strong story if OKC slides or SGA misses more time.
Dubbed Joker, Jokić is averaging about 28.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.7 assists, effectively a high‑efficiency triple-double, while leading the league in rebounds and ranking near the top in assists and scoring. He’s doing it on roughly 59% shooting from the field and about 42% from three, which is absurd efficiency for his usage and makes his advanced metrics (on/off, EPM-type stats, win shares) elite.
Who else can win?
A non-Thunder, non-Nuggets team winning the 2026 title wouldn’t completely eliminate SGA and Jokić from MVP contention. However, their odds would drop while the odds for other stars would increase depending on their level of dominance. The most likely Finals MVP would almost certainly be that team’s existing offensive centerpiece—right now, that points you to stars on the Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, or Knicks, since those are the next‑tier title candidates.
Likeliest non-OKC/DEN champions and their MVPs
- San Antonio Spurs: If the Spurs break through, Victor Wembanyama would be an overwhelming Finals MVP favorite given his usage, rim protection, and media narrative as a young generational star.
- Boston Celtics: As their primary scorer and closer, Jayson Tatum remains the most likely Finals MVP, although Jaylen Brown could emerge as a surprise if he surpasses Tatum in the series.
- Detroit Pistons: A Pistons run would likely ride Cade Cunningham as initiator and late‑game engine; his creation role makes him the default Finals MVP if Detroit actually wins.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: With the Harden trade pushing Cleveland into the top contender tier, the narrative MVP candidates would be Donovan Mitchell or James Harden, but Mitchell is still the cleaner “face of the run” if he leads scoring.
- New York Knicks: For New York, Jalen Brunson’s workload and clutch shot profile make him the leading Finals MVP candidate in any Knicks title scenario.
What about Luka Dončić?
Luka Dončić looked like a strong MVP candidate early in the 2025–26 season—he was top‑3 in most odds screens, and near the top of the MVP ladder thanks to huge counting stats and a hot Lakers start. He was absolutely awesome and my early-season pick for MVP because he was playing like the best player in basketball.
Through that early stretch, he was leading the league in scoring at around 35 points per game with roughly 9 rebounds and 9 assists, flirting with a triple‑double on massive usage. Moreover, he opened the year with historic on-ball numbers (e.g., over his first four games, he was at about 40 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists per night), which pushed a strong “Luka carrying the Lakers” storyline.
As one midseason ladder writeup put it, if Jokić dropped out of the race, Dončić was positioned as the main candidate to “press” SGA for MVP as the season wore on, underscoring how seriously he was being taken.
However, Dončić missed multiple games with a hamstring strain, including four straight heading into All‑Star weekend, which dings his narrative momentum and raises 65‑game‑rule anxiety for voters and books. During this same window, Jokić returned from his own layoff, and SGA stayed (relatively) on track, so Luka’s absence let others accumulate stats and wins while he sat.
How to think about it probabilistically
Title odds boards put the Thunder and Nuggets in their own tier, then group the Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, and Knicks in a fairly tight band (roughly +1200 to +1900), so conditional on “someone else wins,” those five teams collectively hold most of the remaining probability mass.
Do you agree with the odds?
