We agree with Polymarket’s prediction that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader since 1989, will remain in that position after March 31.
As of February 22, Polymarket odds suggest there’s only a 22% chance that Khamenei will be out of power after the aforementioned date.
Currently on Polymarket, a successful $100 wager on Khamenei staying in power after March 31 would net $25. The same winning bet on Khamenei losing power on or before that date would net $361.68.
Why Khamenei will likely to remain in power?
At this moment, Khamenei, although widely criticized in Iran, remains too powerful and well-positioned to be deposed so soon. Removing him would be very difficult because he has near-dictatorial powers, and he’s stacked every key institution—political, clerical, and military—with loyalists who would have to approve his ouster.
I’m in Westminster, and behind me flies the world’s largest Lion and Sun flag, bold and unmistakable.
— Nicholas Lissack (@NicholasLissack) February 21, 2026
The Iranian people continue to astonish me with their strength, their kindness, and their unbreakable resolve.
Iran will be free from Khamenei and the IRGC in 2026. pic.twitter.com/pzPt4OlXBG
Of even greater significance, in Iran’s system, the “Ayatollah” is not just a politician but a high‑ranking Shi’a cleric who claims religious authority to rule. He issues religiously framed speeches, fatwa‑like pronouncements, and guidance on culture, morality, and foreign policy, which institutions are expected to follow as religiously grounded directives.
Simply put, he acts as both the final religious and political authority.
The Ayatollah, whether popular or not, is more than a leader—he’s a way of life in Iran.
🔴 Khamenei’s thugs are beating a young man in Tabriz for eating during Ramadan.
— Savakzadeh (@Savakzadeh) February 22, 2026
Iranians can’t live like Iranians inside their own country. Free Iran from these occupiers President @realDonaldTrump, please. pic.twitter.com/1vXUIMXQzI
So, removing Khamenei via ouster would likely require overturning an entire system, not just toppling one man, which makes his position structurally resilient.
So, Khamenei can be legally removed?
Yes. He can be removed under Iran’s constitution, but only by one body and under conditions that are extremely unlikely. Many political, clerical, and military elites owe their careers, wealth, and protection to Khamenei and the governmental system. So keep in mind, even those who might favor change often fear that removing him could trigger power struggles—or broader regime collapse, so they’d likely prefer managing succession after his death rather than trying to depose him while alive.
Will Khamenei step down?
Extremely unlikely. Almost zero chance. Iran’s system is designed for the supreme leader to serve for life; the only formal off‑ramp other than death is dismissal by the Assembly of Experts, not voluntary retirement, and such an event has never happened for any leader.
Death by natural causes or incapacitation?
This is the most likely scenario that Khamenei, who will be 87 in April, exits office on or prior to March 31. As of early 2026, he is believed to have long-term health challenges. He’s apparently receiving prostate cancer treatment, in addition to having had bowel obstruction surgery in 2022. Moreover, he’s been reported to have cognitive issues. In fact, recent reports from late 2025 indicated further deterioration in his condition, increasing speculation about his potential successor.
However, as previously indicated, succession planning focuses on what happens after death or severe incapacitation. Hence, the expectation is that he’s far more likely to “rule until death” than have a negotiated resignation.
Could a U.S. or Israeli military attack cause his death?
It is unlikely that the US or Israel will openly try to assassinate Khamenei this soon. At least not by March 31.
Killing Khamenei would be considered a direct act of war against the Iranian state, with highly unpredictable escalation, so even a state willing to run big risks (like Israel) has strong incentives to stop short of that line.
The situation would have to escalate tremendously for the U.S. and Israel to militarily target Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Mass public revolt
This outcome is also quite unlikely, though not impossible. But too much would have to happen for Khamenei to be deposed via a mass revolt by March 31.
🚨 Escaped Iranian woman: “No one in Iran is Muslim—we all HATE Islam after 47 yrs of regime.
— 𝔉🅰𝒏 Karoline Leavitt (@WHLeavitt) February 16, 2026
Sharia: no dogs, women can’t sing, killed for normal dress. We want peace & normal lives!”
Support freeing Iran from Khamenei’s tyranny?
A. Yes
B. No pic.twitter.com/170ndEAJtP
Yes, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faces tremendous criticism inside Iran for his authoritarian governance, widespread repression, and suppression of dissent, which have led to numerous protests with significant casualties and accusations of human rights abuses.
In addition, his economic policies are viewed as detrimental, increasing inflation, unemployment, and corruption while benefiting elites, with sanctions and regional conflicts exacerbating Iran’s hardships.
As a result, even some hardliners in Iran see Khamenei as a liability, suggesting institutional checks there have begun to erode and the country is more vulnerable to regime change than in the past. However, deposing Khamenei by mass revolt would require not just huge street protests but a deep, public split in the regime’s own security and clerical elites.
This is the real #Iran!
— Iran Military Media (@IRMilitaryMedia) February 22, 2026
A troublemaker in the Tehran metro tries to get people to join him and chant against the government, but no one pays him any attention. The story gets even more interesting when he explicitly mentions the name of Ayatollah Khamenei—and the people's… pic.twitter.com/FKGxTd2U3x
Again, part—or most—of the national system would have to collapse for a Supreme Leader to be deposed. Movements would have to evolve beyond spontaneous demonstrations into organized civil resistance, including strikes, boycotts, and a massive, coordinated disruption of key economic and administrative institutions.
Essentially, Iran would have to close for business.
Otherwise, the government will simply continue to shoot protesters en masse, at will, and without regard to laws or penalties.
Different than al-Assad
Sure, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was forced out of power in December 2024, but he was a mere dictator (not a religious leader as well) whose power was highly personalized and tied to specific security branches and militias; once parts of the army and security services broke under war, his position eroded rapidly. Because Khamenei is also the religious leader in a very conservative Islamic country, toppling him would be on an entirely different level.
Prediction: If Khamenei has a heartbeat on April 1, he’ll be in power.
