Prediction market odds suggest a small likelihood that President Trump will resign in 2026.
As of now, February 16, Polymarket says there’s a 7% chance that Trump resigns by December 31, 2026. Hence, the Polymarket contract implies there’s about a 1‑in‑14 probability of an announcement of resignation by the end of 2026.
Resolution criteria specify that any official announcement that he has resigned or will resign before that date is enough for “Yes,” even if the actual resignation happens later, which makes the present a fairly broad resignation event. For instance, if Trump announces on December 30, 2026, that he’ll resign in 12 months, it would still fulfill the contract.
So, do you agree with the 7% odds?
One U.S. president has resigned from office: Richard Nixon.
Nixon announced he would resign on the evening of August 8, 1974, amid the Watergate scandal. He no longer had enough political support, in Congress and among the public in general, to justify pressing on.
The most likely reasons Trump would resign in 2026
- Health, physical, or mental issues
Even if Trump is unable to lead due to mental acuity, it’s difficult to see him stepping down so soon in his tenure. He’d probably have to have a very serious physical ailment before he’d even consider relinquishing power. - Scandal and intense legal or political pressure cause a negotiated exit to avoid worse outcomes
A president may resign when they have effectively lost the ability to govern because their party, congressional leadership, and key allies abandon them.
If Trump were to be engulfed in a deeply embarrassing or severe scandal that would almost certainly result in a successful impeachment or likely conviction, he might opt to resign rather than endure the strain and spectacle of the process. But it would have to be something big enough to pit most of the Republican Party against him. If the Epstein Files implicate Trump, such an outcome could potentially occur. Think of a Nixon‑style endgame. - “Strategic” resignation for a future run
Some commentators and legal analysts have spun out hypotheticals where Trump might try to resign in coordination with allies to game term‑limit or succession rules, but these schemes run directly into the 22nd and 12th Amendment constraints and are widely viewed as legally dubious.
Would a massive Blue wave in November’s midterm elections increase the odds of a Trump resignation?
Only slightly. Hence, the biggest midterm onslaught in U.S. history probably wouldn’t be enough. With the current president and today’s political climate, for a presidential resignation to even be considered, Republicans would need to lose a significant number of currently “safe” seats.
Republicans would need to experience a near-apocalyptic event to abandon Donald Trump and force his resignation.
Even amid impeachment and 25th Amendment talk, he retained enough support within his party and base that he evidently judged resignation to be against his interests; thus, while the legal option existed, the political incentives to use it did not.
“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”
