Is Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, 75, vulnerable in New York? The polls tell us that he is, although it’s still very early. He’s not up for re-election until 2028.
As of November 18, 2025, Siena’s polling data indicates that Schumer’s favorability rating has reached the lowest mark it has ever recorded since he became a senator (over 26 years) in New York State; just 32% of voters approve of Schumer, while 55% disapprove of him.
But there’s more. Polling data collected in early polling from Q1 of 2025 showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) with double-digit leads over Senator Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical 2028 New York Democratic Senate primary. The multiple independent polls, conducted by both the Honan Strategy Group/Jewish Voters Action Network and Data for Progress, showed AOC leading Schumer among Democrat voters with margins between 18 and 21 points.
For some, Schumer, 75, is viewed as yesterday’s best, while folks see AOC, 36, as tomorrow’s hope.
However, Democrats should be cautious about sending Schumer into retirement. He’s done a lot of fine work, has tremendous experience, and is not as out of touch as some think.
And yes, even among Jewish Democrats—a group long considered Schumer’s stronghold—AOC led by 12 points. Ouch!
“AOC serves as the face of the Democratic Party for many Trump supporters who dislike national Democrats. They like to pillory her as ignorant and irresponsible,” per Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, who previously told Newsweek via email.
“At the same time, many Democrats embrace AOC as a worthy young successor to Bernie, someone who can play the role of progressive challenger in a Democratic nomination battle.”
Another analyst noted, “AOC is a person who understands her base, who understands the leftist populist streak that runs through the party, she understands social media, she has a massive following… She should not be underestimated.”
Ocasio-Cortez has also grown a massive online following and has become one of the Democratic Party’s largest money-raising forces. In November, Ocasio-Cortez had a major win as Zohran Mamdani won his election to become New York City’s mayor. Ocasio-Cortez was both a supporter and advocate of Zohran Mamdani prior to most elected officials endorsing him.
“She is fascinating and she knows how to communicate to people and she’s dynamic and she has energy and she’s a fighter, and more than anything, the Democratic base wants someone to fight for them,” said Democratic strategist Anthony Coley via The Hill. “I’m a huge fan. I think she would bring a lot of energy to the race, whether Chuck Schumer decides to run again.”
Will Schumer even run again?
Some speculate that the senator will retire at the end of his term. But he has made no public announcement regarding retirement from office and is continuing to focus on his role within Senate Leadership and upcoming elections. Although his U.S. Senate seat will be due for election in 2028, he has expressed that it is at least probable he will also run again as the Leader of the Senate after the midterms.
Mum’s the word… In Fall 2025, AOC changed the subject after MSNBC host Chris Hayes asked if she had threatened to launch a primary challenge to Schumer.
My questions:
1. Will AOC’s progressive stance alienate many moderate Democrats and independents?
2. At what point will it be too detrimental for the party to have Schumer and AOC going at each other’s throats in a U.S. Senate primary? Someone will likely convince one of them not to run before this happens.
3. How many of MAGA’s disgruntled anti-establishment supporters will be wooed by AOC’s populist, blue-collar agenda?
4. Can AOC go to the negotiating table knowing the left won’t get everything they want (No one gets everything they want)
If she decides to run, AOC is likely to secure Schumer’s seat. However, whether she’ll be successful as the long-term face of the Democratic Party remains to be seen. The answers to the above questions will determine everything.
