The United States has dramatically intensified its military air campaign in Somalia, carrying out at least 111 strikes against armed groups since President Donald Trump returned to office, according to the New America Foundation, which monitors the operations.
Backdrop: The United States has conducted military operations in Somalia since at least 2002, despite the absence of a formal declaration of war, expanding from ground raids to significant airstrikes, including drone strikes, against groups like ISIS, al-Qaeda, and al-Shabaab.
Goal: To reduce terrorist threats to the U.S., its allies, and civilians, and to support Somalia’s efforts to counter extremist groups. However, the current escalation represents a significant shift, with the U.S. taking a more direct and intense role in supporting Somali counterterrorism efforts.
Despite U.S. efforts, groups like al-Shabaab remain resilient, leveraging political fragmentation in Somalia, according to experts.
Polymarket Prediction: The U.S. will strike again sometime this month, with 86% odds, according to Polymarket, as of January 7th at 1 AM ET.
Don’t be confused: These military efforts aren’t related to the current criticism of Somalis in Minnesota, which centers on large-scale welfare fraud scandals. Those accusations have led to federal investigations, political rhetoric (especially from Donald Trump), and immigration-related anxiety.
Why wouldn’t the U.S. strike Somalia again by the end of the month?
It’s difficult to think of a reason offhand. With President Trump’s low approval rating and widespread concern about the economy, the likelihood of his striking only increases because it helps take the focus off the president’s problems, including criticism of the partial release of the Epstein files, and portrays him as being proactive against terrorism, regardless of the impact of those strikes.
So yeah, the odds are pretty high. However, the United States is unlikely to launch a large, Iraq‑style ground invasion of Somalia because the costs, risks, and political downsides far outweigh any plausible benefits, and because Washington already has cheaper, lower‑visibility tools (drones, special forces, and partners) to pursue its limited objectives there.
And with higher‑priority concerns (China, Russia, the Middle East, homeland polarization) and lingering fatigue from Iraq and Afghanistan, the political system has little appetite for another large, visible war in a place most voters view as peripheral.
However, unless there’s immediate widespread national or international condemnation of additional U.S. airstrikes on Somalia, or the U.S. does a 180 and redirects its focus on a much larger international threat, such as China attacking Taiwan, don’t be surprised if there’s another limited airstrike by this month’s end.
More on the Polymarket Odds
At 86% odds, a successful $100 bet would garner $123.46 if you think the U.S. will launch another airstrike on Somalia by January 31. The same successful wager insisting the U.S. will not launch an airstrike would win $613.40.
Update:
Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
