Although Donald Trump’s approval rating is near the low end, and many Americans perceive the economy as fragile or recession-like, his vice president, JD Vance, is Polymarket’s odds-on favorite to win the presidency in 2028 as of December 28, 2025.
Thirty-one percent like Vance’s chances to win the presidency, while just 17 percent like Newsom’s. Hence, Vance’s odds of winning are about 3 in 10 right now, but that’s better than everyone else’s.
Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez polled third with 8 percent, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump each had 4 percent. We predict Trump won’t run in 2028, and that he wouldn’t even if he could constitutionally.
Frank-Story commented on Polymarket:
“Vance vs. Newsom, Emanuel, or Kelly is a loss for him. AOC, Kamala, Pritzker, or Shapiro is an easy Vance W… I would throw in Beshear as another Vance L.”
He seems to think Vance would be vulnerable to a less controversial, more moderate Democrat but cruise against a Democrat that leans decisively left or has a little political baggage.
In sports, some teams simply match up better with certain teams, and it has more to do with the intangibles and those teams’ strengths and weaknesses than their overall skill and abilities. The same holds in political races.
Should Democrats nominate a southern moderate like Tennessee Governor Andy Beshear, it could be a nightmarish situation for MAGA and the Republicans. But could the lesser-known Beshear overcome the big guns (Newsom, Harris, and AOC) in his own primary and thereby position himself to challenge Vance?
And obviously, not everyone agrees with Polymarket’s odds on the next president.
“The odds for Vance are ridiculous…this guy is so unpopular even among the AF base + the Trump admin completely messed up on the economy w their tariff and trade war lunacy,” wrote Manu888.
Vlnvndthkvlt added, “… Vance is universally loathed by anyone not on Trump’s side, and by many ON his side. For no real reason, because he’s not a bad guy. Newsom is the consummate political climber and has the female vote locked down.”
My Opinion: Given that a large segment of the Republican Party appears to be rallying around Vance so soon, he has to be the odds-on favorite at this moment, as he appears to have already locked up the Republican nomination. Democrats, on the other hand, haven’t converged on any one candidate.
If the contest were a footrace, Vance would be slightly closer to the finish line than all of the other candidates due to his strong early push. However, once Democrats choose their nominee and get behind one candidate, the odds will probably change quite a bit.
What’s your opinion of today’s Polymarket 2028 presidential race odds?
