Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Wednesday, February 25, 2026

State of the Union poll: Solid majority say U.S. not strong

A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds that 57% of Americans say the state of the union is not strong, a notable majority and up from 53% last year. Roughly 43% insist the country is strong or very strong.

Partisan and demographic splits

  • Around 79–80% of Democrats say the union is not strong, versus about 23% of Republicans. And roughly three-quarters of Republicans say the state of the union is strong or very strong.
  • But about two-thirds of independents say it is not strong, a key warning sign for Trump politically.
  • College graduates, older voters, and women in small cities/suburbs are especially likely to say the union is weak.

Broader worries: democracy and institutions

  1. ​Roughly 78% see a serious threat to the future of American democracy.
  2. About 68% say the system of checks and balances is not working well, up roughly 12 points from a year earlier.
  3. More than seven in ten Americans now say U.S. democracy is in jeopardy when these measures are taken together.

Political implications for Trump’s SOTU

The poll lands as President Trump prepares his first State of the Union address of his second term, highlighting significant headwinds with independents and non-Republican voters. Despite that, over 80% of Republicans say the country is better off than a year ago, so his base still rates conditions positively.

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Lee Cleveland
Lee is the Editor-in-Chief and founder of 2026PREDICT.com (predictionsandodds.com)—a cutting-edge platform dedicated to analyzing and tracking the accuracy of prediction markets and forecasting models.

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