Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Wednesday, February 25, 2026

WARNING POLL: Big allies view U.S. as unreliable and destabilizing

A new POLITICO–Public First international poll shows that large shares of the public in key U.S. allies now see the United States as unreliable, destabilizing, and a negative force in the world, especially under Donald Trump’s current foreign policy.

What the poll actually finds

  • In Germany and France, pluralities view the U.S. as a negative force internationally and say it creates more problems than it solves for other countries.
  • In Canada, a clear majority describe the U.S. as a negative global force and believe it makes problems rather than resolving them.
  • In the U.K., views are more mixed, but large minorities question U.S. reliability in a crisis and see it as generating problems for allies.

Why allies say “unreliable” and “destabilizing”

  • Respondents link their views to Trump’s foreign policy shifts: aggressive tariff use (including against allies), hard‑line “America First” rhetoric, and wavering U.S. support for Ukraine and NATO.
  • European officials and experts cited in coverage say that frequent threats to condition or reduce U.S. security commitments have made governments plan more seriously for greater European “strategic autonomy.”

Context from other recent polling

  • Broader international surveys in 2025 show declines in confidence in the U.S. and expectations that it will play a positive role in world affairs in many countries.
  • At the same time, U.S. domestic opinion still strongly backs alliances and NATO, suggesting a gap between Trump administration policy signals and long‑term American public support for alliances.

What this likely means in practice

  • Allied governments are not abandoning the U.S., but many are hedging: increasing defense spending, diversifying security and economic partnerships, and planning for more independent action if Washington’s commitments fluctuate.
  • The perception of U.S. unreliability makes crisis management harder: partners may discount U.S. assurances, while adversaries may test red lines if they believe U.S. follow‑through is uncertain.
author avatar
Lee Cleveland
Lee is the Editor-in-Chief and founder of 2026PREDICT.com (predictionsandodds.com)—a cutting-edge platform dedicated to analyzing and tracking the accuracy of prediction markets and forecasting models.

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