Following the exodus of Eric Swalwell, attorney and former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra has been promoted to the top position in the IVN poll.
New – California Governor poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) April 21, 2026
🔵 Becerra 23%
🔴 Hilton 20%
🔴 Bianco 17%
🔵 Steyer 14%
🔵 Porter 11%
IVN #C – LV – 4/20 pic.twitter.com/ln33WfWhMj
But based on current data, Becerra is not the favorite to win; markets give him roughly a one‑in‑three chance, and polling still shows a volatile, multi‑candidate race. For example, as of April 20, Polymarket gives Becerra a 34% chance of winning, while fellow Democrat Tom Steyer’s chances are roughly 44%.
Taken together, polls say Becerra has real momentum and his odds of winning surge. He will be considered a serious contender, and more people will listen to what he has to say. In addition, it will unlock money because donors use polls as a shortcut, so a first‑place or clear‑surge poll will make it easier for Becerra to raise large checks and small‑dollar online money. And coverage of his “massive jump” after Swalwell’s implosion already frames him as the Democrat with momentum, which is exactly the narrative that attracts late money and bundlers.
In summary, finishing first place in a single poll won’t guarantee anything in this fragmented field, but it improves Becerra’s odds by upgrading his narrative from “afterthought” to “frontrunner with momentum,” which translates into more money, more coverage, more elite support, and better voter exposure.
