We’re not predicting an Aaron Ford upset in Nevada just yet, but we’re leaning towards that.
Looking at the Nevada governor’s race, one name keeps popping up—Aaron Ford. He seemingly has the integrity and vision to take the state forward, and a strong case can be made for why Ford could win Nevada’s 2026 governor’s race—but it’s not a sure thing. Currently, observers view the race against Republican incumbent Governor Joe Lombardo as a toss-up, with early polling indicating a near tie.
new – Governor poll – Nevada
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 27, 2026
🔴 Lombardo (Inc) 39%
🔵 Ford 38%
🔵 Ford vs Winterhawk – Ford +6
🔵 Ford vs Hansen – Ford +5
🔵 Ford vs Zalaya – Ford +6
Noble predictive #B – RV – 3/14 pic.twitter.com/kZ3BXAtcEK
The Current Political Landscape in Nevada
In Nevada, the old party rules are changing. More voters are choosing to be independent. This shift is making the race for governor very
interesting, as candidates try to win over more people.
Nevada’s voters have always been diverse. But now, they’re leaning away from traditional parties. This change is due to many reasons, like new people moving in and different priorities.
Aaron Ford is the current Attorney General of Nevada and is known for his legal expertise and dedication to public service. So, his ability to work across party lines makes him a strong candidate for governor.
Shifting Voter Allegiances in the Silver State
Voters in Nevada are open to changing their minds. They care about things like economic diversification and healthcare access. These
issues are key in deciding who they support.
Looking at voter trends, we see a mix. Some stick with their party, but many are open to new ideas. They’re more interested in what a
candidate can do more than their party label.
| Voter Allegiance | 2018 Election | 2022 Election |
| Democratic | 47.6% | 45.1% |
| Republican | 45.4% | 43.9% |
| Independent/Other | 7% | 11% |
The Influence of Independent Voters on Election Outcomes
Independent voters are key in Nevada’s gubernatorial race. As they grow, candidates are trying to win them over.
Those who succeed talk about bipartisan issues and practical solutions. They focus on what works, not just party lines. And this can really change who wins, as independents can tip the scales.
Here are the best arguments for why Ford could win:
1. Nevada is a true swing state, but it’s more blue than red
Nevada still leans Democratic in many statewide races:
- Democrats hold key statewide offices (AG, secretary of state, etc.)
- Democrats control the state legislature
That means Ford doesn’t need a huge shift—just normal Democratic turnout to be competitive.
2. He’s already won statewide—twice
Ford has proven he can win, and he’s highlighted as a top choice due to his consistent public service record.
- Elected Attorney General in 2018
- Re-elected in 2022 with ~52% of the vote
That matters because the following:
- He has name recognition
- He has a built-in voter coalition
- He’s already survived competitive elections
3. Strong “law-and-order + progressive” profile
Ford has a unique mix politically:
- Top law enforcement official (Attorney General)
- Also pushed policies like drug price transparency and criminal justice reforms
This lets him appeal to:
- Moderates (public safety credibility)
- Democrats (policy priorities)
That balance is valuable in a swing state.
4. Economic messaging fits the moment
His campaign is focused on:
- Cost of living
- Housing affordability
- Jobs and education
Those are the top voter concerns, especially in Nevada, where housing and tourism swings hit hard. If the election becomes about the economy, that can benefit challengers like Ford.
5. Incumbent vulnerability
Even though incumbents usually have an advantage, Lombardo isn’t unbeatable:
- Won in 2022 with less than 50%
- Faces a politically divided electorate
- Has taken controversial positions (e.g., policy decisions criticized by both sides)
Ford’s strategy will likely be to turn the race into a referendum on Lombardo’s record.
6. Personal story + historic potential
Ford’s background (public school teacher → AG) and potential to become:
Nevada’s first Black governor can energize parts of the Democratic base and attract national attention.
7. Bipartisan Vision
Ford offers a bipartisan vision focused on solutions, which could make him a unifying figure for Nevadans. For instance, public safety is a big worry for voters. As a result, Ford plans to support police while fixing community issues. This means better training for police and reforms to gain community trust.
His plan includes:
- Improving community policing to strengthen police and community ties.
- Starting reforms to tackle racial bias and police brutality.
- Investing in programs for crime prevention, mental health, and social services.
8. Healthcare access
Prioritizing healthcare access is essential for Nevadans. Ford wants to expand affordable healthcare and improve infrastructure. This
ensures medical support for all communities. He offers a bipartisan vision focused on solutions, which could make him a unifying figure for Nevadans.
8. The race is already extremely close
Early polling via the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows the following:
- Lombardo: 39%
- Ford: 38%
- Not sure: 17%
- Someone else: 5%
That means Ford doesn’t need a major shift—just a small edge in turnout. Let’s face it, he won’t change the minds of any of the 39% who support Lombardo, but he has a good chance to win over most of the 22% who are undecided or currently support a long-shot candidate.
Maintaining Voter Enthusiasm Through Election Day
Keeping voter enthusiasm high is vital for winning. The Ford campaign can do this by:
- Getting volunteers involved in local efforts
- Using digital tools and social media to reach out
- Keeping supporters informed and motivated to vote
By keeping the energy up and staying connected with voters, the Ford campaign can beat the challenge of keeping enthusiasm alive until
Election Day.
Reality check
Despite all this, Ford’s victory is far from guaranteed.
Aaron Ford’s run for Nevada Governor is picking up speed. His experience, ability to work across party lines, and focus on important issues
are key, and many think he has a good chance of winning.
As the election gets closer, Ford’s work on the ground and his fundraising will be important.
But, just a reminder…
- Republicans have won most governor races since 1998
- Nevada voted Republican in the 2024 presidential race
- Incumbency is still powerful
Bottom line
Ford can win because he combines the following:
- Proven statewide success
- A favorable (but competitive) political environment
- His ability to work across party aisles
- Strong economic messaging
- A race that is already basically tied
If turnout and economic sentiment break his way, he has a very real path to victory.
