The title refers to a Feb. 12, 2026, social post by The Oregonian/OregonLive highlighting a local economist’s view that Portland’s metro economy has effectively slipped into recession due to several city‑specific weaknesses.
What the economist is warning about
According to the summary, the economist argues that Portland is in a recession because of three overlapping dynamics: persistent job losses, stagnant population growth, and weak (described as “anemic”) housing construction. These indicators together suggest a local contraction even though the broader U.S. and even Oregon state‑wide outlook is not classified as being in recession in baseline forecasts.
Local vs. national conditions
Recent official projections for Oregon as a whole still assign the highest probability to a “baseline” scenario with continued, if slower, growth and only elevated recession risk rather than an already ongoing statewide downturn. State economists and business groups instead describe Oregon as having “lost momentum” and note sector‑specific or regional recessions (such as manufacturing and some metro areas) even while the aggregate state economy avoids the technical recession label.
How to interpret the claim
So the quote “We are in a recession” is not a federal call about the entire U.S. cycle but a judgment about Portland’s local business cycle, informed by labor‑market, demographic, and construction data for the metro area. It fits the pattern where parts of a state or specific sectors can be in recession while headline state and national GDP still show modest growth, creating a patchwork or “K‑shaped” experience across regions and industries.
U.S. Official recession status
As of February 2026, the U.S. is not in an official recession, though growth has slowed and recession risk is elevated. The body that declares U.S. recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), has not identified a new peak and downturn after the short 2020 recession; its most recent chronology still shows an ongoing expansion starting in April 2020. Because the NBER dates cycles with a lag, there is always some uncertainty, but there has been no formal announcement of a new recession as of early 2026.
Also, you can have local recessions (for example, in specific metros like Portland) at the same time that national aggregates still show modest growth, which is what some regional economists are highlighting now.
