Welcome to the Gerrymandering Apocalypse
Marc Novicoff: “America is quickly moving toward a system in which tens of millions of blue-state Republicans and red-state Democrats effectively have no congressional representation at all.”
Gerrymandering and Representation
Aggressive partisan gerrymandering has created entrenched one-party delegations in several states, leaving minority-party voters with little or no congressional voice. For example, Massachusetts and California have all-Democratic delegations despite a substantial Republican voter presence, while Texas and Alabama send only Republicans despite large numbers of Democratic voters. These patterns have accelerated since the 2020 redistricting cycle, with both parties using their control over map drawing to diminish seats available to the minority party in their states.
Court challenges and ballot initiatives are ongoing in several states, as activists seek to make the redistricting process less partisan and more representative. However, as legal fights continue and state legislatures redraw maps in mid-decade cycles, the trend points toward a further entrenchment of non-competitive districts and diminished minority-party representation.
Key States with Extreme Effects
- California: All Democratic House delegation, despite a sizable GOP base.
- Texas: Congressional districts are mostly GOP, though a large Democratic vote exists.
- New York and Alabama: Similar single-party dominance due to map control.
- Ohio, North Carolina: Recent redraws further solidified partisan advantage.
The growing misalignment between voter populations and congressional representation is a direct outcome of policy choices and redistricting practices, rather than simply voter preference or demographic change.
How Texas is an Example of Gerrymandering
Texas has a total of 38 congressional districts. The current party breakdown for the Texas delegation in the U.S. House is:
- Republicans: 25
- Democrats: 12
- Vacant: 1
About two-thirds (66%) of the state’s congressional delegation is Republican, yet the state’s voters aren’t nearly 66% percent Republican.
In the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, President Donald Trump received just 56% of the vote there while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris garnered 43%, 10 points greater than the percentage of her party’s delegation in Congress.
Critics will suggest Texas Democrats simply jumped ship and supported Trump in high numbers. But, the results were even more daming in the Lone Star State’s 2024 U.S. Senate race, where Republican Ted Cruz secured just 53 percent of the vote – a far cry from two-thirds of the state’s voters. His Democrat opponent, Colin Allred, tallied 46 percent, well over one-third of his party’s congressional delegation’s representation in the U.S. Congress.
Let’s Keep it Real
President Trump has very publicly urged Republican-controlled states to redraw congressional maps in ways that would give the GOP more seats, including in mid‑decade “do‑overs” that many critics describe as gerrymandering. He has not issued a formal legal “order” to all Republicans, but he is pressuring GOP officials and legislators to adopt aggressively pro‑Republican maps and threatening political consequences if they refuse. As a result, Democrats have no alternative but to try to keep up with their own gerrymandering.
“We’re not allowed to draw by race, but we are allowed to be partisan in drawing on the maps, and that’s what we’re going to do. The courts have been very clear on that, and that’s absolutely what we’re doing. We’re not going to try to fool you. We’re not going to lie to you. These are partisan maps.” – State Rep. Carl Tepper (R-TX)
Seriously?!?!?!?!?
So much for country over party.
I’m 99.4 percent sure he wouldn’t feel that way if Democrats controlled Texas and took a page from Texas Republicans’ Gerrymandering Playbook. But he’s correct – partisan gerrymandering is permitted under federal law following a 2019 Supreme Court ruling. This means that it is not subject to federal court review and is therefore legal unless it violates state law or the U.S. Constitution in specific ways, such as discriminating based on race.
