Louisiana U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy was primaried due to the actions of Republican voters there who were upset with Cassidy’s decision to vote to convict President Donald Trump on February 13, 2021, during Trump’s second Senate impeachment trial. Cassidy joined six other Republican senators in voting to convict Trump on a single article of impeachment charging him with “incitement of insurrection” following the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
While Cassidy did support Trump’s political agendas while he served in public office, Cassidy’s decision to vote to convict Trump and his subsequent questioning of Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to serve as Secretary at Health & Human Services made Cassidy appear as if he had broken with Trump, thus making Cassidy open to a challenge by a candidate backed by Trump.
Yesterday’s loss for Cassidy represents an unprecedented situation for a sitting U.S. Senator and exemplifies how thoroughly Donald Trump controls the Republican Party. At this point in time, it would be challenging to have predicted this type of loss a few years ago, given that incumbent senators rarely lose their renomination contests; however, this loss can be seen within a larger context of Trump supporters punishing what they perceive to be dissident behavior among Republicans.
Within his post-election concession speech, Cassidy implied that because he’ll be free from the pressures associated with seeking election again, he may take a more vocal stance in opposition to his party’s current trajectory.
Thus, a new prediction question arises: Will Cassidy use the time left before he leaves office to publicly confront and/or criticize Trump and/or his allies? Or will these suggestions prove to be simply empty promises that are followed up with more reserved, traditional political behavior?
Prediction: We believe that Cassidy will follow the above example (akin to Marjorie Taylor Greene).
